Gloomy assessment of the conflict: Ukraine's prospects are getting worse

In recent weeks, Russian armed forces have continued their winter offensive along Ukraine's long front line.

Despite fierce resistance, the Ukrainians have been forced to retreat in many places. Russian troops are pushed back by counterattacks.

An expert of the Rochon Company who analyzes the war situation Music by Konrad Estimates that the overall situation in Ukraine weakened in February. The biggest challenge was the lack of artillery ammunition and infantry. In the near future, the country's parliament will discuss the law on business introduction, which is believed to ease the situation later this year.

Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian cities are fewer than a year ago. In recent weeks, Iranian-made Shahed explosive drones have been used less frequently than before.

According to Musica, there is currently no indication that Russia intends to stop its repeated attacks. Attacks will probably continue along the entire length of the front line. In the Donetsk region, the defenders' situation in the partially besieged city of Avdizhivka became more difficult. The situation is described as “critical and chaotic”.

Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can only use about 1,000-2,000 artillery pieces per day. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov Accordingly, three times the number would be needed to protect current levels. Russia can drop about 10,000 grenades per day.

– Ukraine's ammunition shortage will worsen, at least in the short term, until it increases external supplies, says Konrad Musica.

The aid package, stalled by a dispute in the US Congress, could be seen to weaken Ukraine's air defenses in particular. Live ammunition is not available as before.

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Many Ukrainian divisions suffered heavy losses and insufficient reinforcements were sent to the front. Some battalions have only 40 soldiers, while their regular strength is 200 men.

Already last November, it was reported about the company stationed near Avdizhivka, of which only 20 of the 120 soldiers remained after the summer counteroffensive.

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