Nikki Haley, singled out against Trump, could end up as presidential candidate on Tuesday, writes Joonas Lehtonen, head of foreign affairs at Ildalehti.
Tuesday could be one of the most important days of Nikki Haley's career. When American Republicans vote for a presidential candidate in the New Hampshire primary, he's all over the place.
There are two candidates: Haley and former President Donald Trump. The original “Trump Dumber”, the Florida governor Ron DeSantisThe weekend put the boots on a nail and withdrew from the entire race.
The New Hampshire primary, the second of the election year, is considered one of the most significant. The first primary is special in that the winner is usually not named based on the final order, but on who did better compared to previous expectations.
Haley's start to the year has not been as expected, as a week ago she finished third in the Iowa primary behind Trump and DeSantis. Trump, who won a landslide victory, was able to enjoy that momentum.
In New Hampshire, things are better for Haley. That's where he's in pain In some surveys Even within touching distance of Trump. Support from DeSantis, who has dropped out of the race, is flowing to Trump, but less so in the state.
Haley's last straw is in the fighting system. More than half of Republicans are rallying behind Trump against him.
– So far, only one state has voted. Half of its votes went to Donald Trump — and half didn't, Haley insisted Sunday.
After New Hampshire, the primary drum moves to Nevada and Haley's home state of South Carolina. Even if the polls in them look challenging for Haley, if she can somehow surprise Trump in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, the rest of the election spring will be bright for her. Successes multiply because it's easy to jump on the winner's bandwagon.
A successful February could push Haley into promising positions until Super Tuesday in early March, when 16 states or territories vote for the Republican presidential nominee.
Before going too far, it should be emphasized that Trump's lead in the Republican primaries is huge. In national polls, he leads Haley by more than 50 percentage points.
If Trump also wins New Hampshire, the frenzy will begin to pick a presidential candidate.
— Hayley's road exists, but it is rocky, broken, and narrow, and runs along the edge of the ravine. He needs to win New Hampshire to have any chance of continuing, the researcher said EJ Dion Recently created this subject.
On the other hand, Trump's position is associated with several uncertainties, the biggest of which is several legal issues. Precincts are canvassed throughout the spring leading up to the election, and their outcomes are difficult to predict.
The New York Times reported In December Nearly a quarter of Trump's supporters think Trump should not run for president if he is convicted of a crime. Even many experts consider it possible, as the man has been charged with more than 90 crimes in total. Trump's team is trying to delay legal action as long as they can.
Two states have also ruled Trump ineligible to be elected in the first place. Trump's complaint about this will soon end up on the table of the US Supreme Court. In principle, it would have the power to block Trump's candidacy, although the conservative majority on the right is unlikely to do so.
This text contains many if-beginning sentences. However, if Haley fights her way to the Republican presidential nomination, the situation will become more interesting.
Based on the polls, Haley seems to have every chance of winning the actual presidential election.
Realclearpolling website Haley leads Democrat Joe Biden nationally by a healthy percentage point, according to the calculated average. In a December poll by the Wall Street Journal, he led by 17 percentage points.
Trump's nationwide lead over Biden has grown in January, now averaging two percentage points.
Of course, there are many problems with this arrangement as well. A major question mark is how disillusioned Trump fans will rally behind presidential candidate Haley, whom Trump has called a “chicken brain.” Bird brain) because US elections are decided in a few states, nationwide support is also less important.
Haley's path past Trump into the White House may have been challenging and narrow, but there it is. At least for a little while longer, it is theoretically possible that the United States will have its first female president in the November election.