According to experts, if the European Union and the United States accelerate the delivery of weapons, Ukraine can beat Russia.
Ukraine has warned its allies that its artillery ammunition is insufficient to respond to new Russian attacks. Bloomberg.
Defense Minister Rustem Umerov Ukraine wrote to its EU counterparts that it could only fire 2,000 rounds a day.
The minister urged EU countries to fulfill their promise of one million rounds of ammunition. With these prospects, the EU's 12-month target is only half. The remaining 600,000 rounds will be delivered later this year if completed.
“The side with the most ammunition usually wins,” Umerov said, according to a document seen by Bloomberg.
According to the document, Ukraine needs 200,000 rounds (155 mm) per month to respond to Russian fire.
It is estimated that 350,000 rounds of ammunition will be needed per month to reach the top of the neck of Ukraine. That's 4.2 million rounds of ammunition a year, four times more than the EU says it can currently produce annually.
The US has also tried to increase its production with Ukraine in mind. The superpower was initially able to ship more munitions because its warehouses were larger than in Europe.
“We can afford this.”
Estonian Ministry of Defense official The wrestling psalm He commented that until mid-2022 the war was a race for fire superiority.
He echoed the Ukrainian defense minister's view that 2,000 rounds per day is about a third of Ukraine's minimum daily requirement. To defeat Russia, Ukraine needs more ammunition than the other side has in its hands.
– Ukrainians make up for the lack of ammunition with their lives, Salm summarizes For EUobserver.
According to Zalmi, Ukraine is likely to gain the upper hand by early 2025 if the EU can increase its production.
Salm calculated that to win the war in Ukraine, the countries of the Ramstein coalition would have to use 0.25 percent of their gross national product to help Ukraine. The alliance includes 31 NATO countries and 23 allies of Ukraine.
– This is a rough estimate, but the low number is the news: we can afford it.
EU regulation is slow
Dutch think tank Clinkendale Institute Dick Jandee Commenting on EUobserver, in addition to productivity, the EU's problem is a regulatory culture unfit for war.
– All types of certification procedures in EU member states regardless of whether artillery ammunition is delivered in February or April.
In the case of Ukraine, the same flexibility is not available, as the volume and timing of military aid also limit the development of the war on the frontline.
Senior researcher at the Belgian Friends of Europe think tank and former NATO official Jamie Shea is in the same order. According to him, it is not just about slow-moving, lazy politicians, but “the system is not designed to react”.
– It's like pulling a lever, but nothing happens because the connection is broken.
According to Shea, the dynamics of the EU do not match the dynamics of the war in Ukraine.
– Europe reached an agreement a few months after the attack that could use cruise missiles.
Shea says past attacks in Ukraine have occurred because the Ukrainians lacked sufficient equipment, while Europe on the other hand simply emptied its stockpiles.
– They are given what they have instead of what they need.
– It's like giving away an old Fiat 500 that's been sitting in the garage and you don't need it, Shea compares.